Technical analyst Rekt Capital suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned out of the post-halving “danger zone” and has now entered an accumulation phase, driven by decreasing selling pressure.
Traditionally, after halving events, Bitcoin encounters heightened volatility, commonly referred to as the “danger zone.” In the current cycle, Bitcoin experienced a modest 6.5% decline over three weeks, followed by a notable 15% surge, indicating a robust departure from the danger zone.
“The Post-Halving Bitcoin ‘Danger Zone’ (depicted in purple) is officially behind us,” noted renowned crypto trader Rekt Capital. “Bitcoin is now showing strength with a substantial rebound from the Re-Accumulation Range Low support.”
Presently, Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, reflecting a 3% increase over the past 24 hours.
Maintaining Support Above $60,000 Crucial for Bitcoin’s Price. In a recent blog post, Rekt Capital underscored the significance of the $60,000 support level for sustaining the upward momentum, with a potential resurgence toward the $68,000 threshold.
“The correction in Bitcoin’s price appears to have concluded, with the asset poised to maintain levels above $60,000 moving forward.” While past patterns serve as guides rather than certainties, the resilience of the current support level augurs well for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Investors await the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, slated for Wednesday, with projections indicating 3.4% for CPI and 3.6% for core CPI. Persistent concerns regarding inflation, surpassing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, could lead to prolonged periods of high-interest rates unless remedial measures are implemented.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s founder, believes that escalating government debt and policy adjustments by the Fed and US Treasury enhance the attractiveness of alternative investments like Bitcoin. Hayes anticipates Bitcoin’s price surpassing $60,000 and stabilizing within the $60,000 to $70,000 range by August.
The outcome of the forthcoming US presidential election may also influence Bitcoin’s valuation, according to Standard Chartered. The bank posits that a potential victory for Donald Trump could benefit Bitcoin, given potential shifts in fiscal and monetary policies.
Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin’s price to surge to $150,000 by year-end and $200,000 by 2025.
Pantera Capital Bullish on Bitcoin
Pantera Capital, a prominent crypto hedge fund, reiterates its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting a potential price surge to $114,000 by August 2025. This forecast coincides with the industry grappling with various challenges, including inflation concerns, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Employing a stock-to-flow model, Pantera evaluates Bitcoin’s supply dynamics relative to the rate of new production, which decreases by 50% every four years during halving events. Historical data indicates significant price surges for Bitcoin, sometimes up to 93-fold, in response to these events.
By analyzing both pre-halving and post-halving rallies, Pantera Capital deduced that prices typically peak around 2.6 years after halving events. Based on this analysis, the projected timeframe for Bitcoin’s potential surge aligns with August next year.
