The odds of President Joe Biden being reelected dropped to as low as 9% on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, amid speculation over whether Vice President Kamala Harris could replace Biden as the Democratic candidate.
Since then, Biden’s odds have slightly recovered, currently standing at 10% in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, valued at $226 million.
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump leads the pack with 61% odds, while Harris follows in second place with 19% odds.
Share prices reflecting Biden’s odds on the predictions platform PredictIt have similarly decreased from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris is now emerging as the leading Democratic candidate. However, Trump continues to hold the highest-valued “Yes” shares at $0.58.
These shifts come amid growing concerns from media and commentators suggesting Biden may not be fit for a second term.
According to CNN, the President reportedly alarmed several U.S. governors during a White House meeting on July 3 when he joked, “I’m fine — I don’t know about my brain, though.”
The same report indicates Biden mentioned he will now avoid scheduling events after 8 pm to prioritize getting more sleep.
Biden faced criticism the following day when he mistakenly referred to himself as the “first black woman” to serve as U.S. President in a radio interview—a moment that has circulated widely on social media since.
Polymarket currently indicates a 66% chance that Biden will drop out before the November 4 U.S. election, with Harris appearing as the most likely Democratic candidate to contend against Trump.
However, Biden has firmly stated he has no intention of stepping down despite mounting pressure to do so.
“I’m not going anywhere,” Biden reportedly emphasized during an Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4.
During the first Presidential Debate on June 27, neither Biden nor Trump discussed Bitcoin (BTC) or digital asset-related matters.
Trump and Biden are set to confront each other again in the final Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10.
